Down and Dynasty

My love for the dynasty format should be clear by now. I really enjoy mining the end of roster guys that become bona fide stars, or even just reliable low-end starters. It is a lot of fun to buy low on a guy like Lamar Miller or Isaiah Crowell and have him provide consistent RB2 numbers. Pulling DeSean Jackson and John Brown off the scrap heap for those booms or busts week winners is exciting when you hit on your super star players bye week. But finding that young player like Phillip Lindsay or Tyler Boyd that everyone seemed to overlook is most gratifying.

Early in the season I took a look at some dynasty stashes from each team. Some were poised for a second or third-year break outs, others were highly regarded and just waiting for an opening, while others just had a belief in themselves and the will to succeed if given the chance.

First let’s take a look at a few guys that looked ready to step into a lead role. These are players teams spent higher picks on, but maybe they were bitten by the injury bug, maybe they were behind a veteran who is still producing or maybe they just did not adjust to the pro game as quickly as anticipated. My comments from earlier are in italics.

Sterling Shepard WR — Going into year three Shepard has established himself as a reliable No. 2 receiver, when his contract is up he may be able to take a step up into a lead role. In 2018 Shepard has shown to be a reliable WR2 for the Giants. He is third on the team in receptions and second in yards and touchdowns. Shepard had a season high 10 catches in Week 4 and 167 yards in Week 7.

Aaron Jones RB — The Packers invested multiple picks in running back in 2017, and Jones is the most exciting back on the roster. If Jamal Williams looks good while Jones is suspended that might be the time to buy. Williams did not look good in Jones’ absence. If you are anything like me, you spent Weeks 3 to 7 standing in the middle of the “Free Aaron Jones” protest wondering why Mike McCarthy wouldn’t give Jones the ball more. Coach finally came around and Weeks 8 to 11, and Jones has averaged 111.5 yards from scrimmage with five total touchdowns.

Corey Davis WR — The top-rated rookie wide out in 2017 fantasy rookie drafts, Davis was hampered by injury in 2017. Poised for a second-year breakout the time to buy cheap has likely passed. At times this season Davis has flashed the ability that made him a dynasty darling in the 2017 rookie draft. The biggest obstacles Davis has faced this season are a conservative coach and a healthy quarterback, meaning to much of the former and not enough of the latter. Still Davis is on pace for 72 receptions and 970 yards in his second year.

Deshaun Watson QB — Was he fool’s gold or the real thing in those seven games in the 2017 season? Watson is coming off an ACL tear but has one of the best wide receivers in the game. If he struggles at all coming back from the injury that may be your only opportunity to buy. No fool’s gold here my friends. While not quite maintaining the torrid pace of his 2017 pre-injury start, he is on pace to throw for almost 4,200 yards and 29 touchdowns while adding another 30 yards per game on the ground in just his second year.

Marlon Mack RB — Built to be a lead back at 6’0” 210 Mack rushed for 3,600 yards in college and caught 65 passes. He showed some exciting playmaking ability last year backing up Frank Gore and again early this preseason but a hamstring issue has had him sidelined for a few weeks. Finally getting healthy, Mack has flashed some of the explosiveness Indianapolis expected when they let Gore walk in free agency. After missing three games early in the season Mack has settled in and is averaging 73 yards per game on just 14 carries for a 5.2 yards per carry rate.

Pat Mahomes QB — Just one look, that’s all it took. Or so the song said, Andy Reid saw Mahomes start the Week 17 season ender for the Chiefs and decided he would ship off his veteran starting quarterback coming off a career year. There are likely to be growing pains and a few game streak of them might be the time to pounce. Mahomes has been nothing short of spectacular in 2018. Last night’s display on Monday Night Football showed the good and bad of a young quarterback. The kid was great — 478 yards passing and six touchdowns. And not — three interceptions and two fumbles leading directly to 21 points by the Rams’ defense. But he is a dynamic player on a dynamic team and that will be a lot of fun to have on your fantasy team for the next decade or more.

In this next group it isn’t if they get a chance, but when they get a chance. These are young, high draft capital players and dynasty owners love high draft capital players.

Kerryon Johnson RB — Time is running out make a value play for Johnson. He combines the best facets of LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick into one player. Johnson is easily the most talented back on the Detroit roster, he has the ability to run with power and finesse and is very comfortable catching the ball. Getting just 15 touches per game and averaging 85 yards from scrimmage leaves lots of room for growth. Now if we can get the Lions to stop using Theo Riddick and LeGarrette Blount so ineffectively then, to quote Bill Lumbergh “that’d be great”

DJ Moore WR — One of the Top 3 wide receivers coming into the NFL in 2018. Moore has plus athletic ability and receiving skills to push Devin Funchess to the WR2 role. Patience in Moore seems to have started to pay off. Saddled with an inefficient quarterback, Moore has shown himself to be very efficient with the opportunities he has been given and last week it paid off with a 7-for-8 for 157 yards and a touchdown performance. This looks like a harbinger of things to come.

Chris Godwin WR — The second-year receiver from Penn State has been steadily climbing the depth chart. He’s not ready to displace Mike Evans but he has moved past DeSean Jackson opposite Evans. Depending on which quarterback has been playing, Godwin has been a featured player of an afterthought. When the Buccaneers get their quarterback situation settled Godwin will be a strong WR2 across from Evans.

Calvin Ridley WR — One of the best route runners coming into the league this year, Ridley is another in the long line of NFL receivers to come out of Alabama. Ridley will be fighting Mo Sanu for targets across from Julio Jones. A highly pedigreed WR coming out of Alabama, Ridley has shown the ability to play a consistent role in the Falcons offense. Heading into 2019, Ridley will be the second option in the Falcons passing game with WR1 upside as Julio Jones goes into the latter part of his career.

Sony Michel RB — The rookie out of Georgia has been dealing with a balky knee, but his first-round pedigree has him in line for a big role moving forward. The missed time in pre-season might be the opportunity you need to get him in a trade. Michel is a unicorn. Quick, name the last New England Patriots first round running back? If you said Laurence Maroney 2006 you would be correct. Michel will get every opportunity to be the guy in New England, now that doesn’t mean Michel will get 25 carries per game every week, but there will be weeks does and there will be weeks he catches eight passes.

Baker Mayfield QB — You’ll be paying up for this one if you didn’t draft him. Mayfield has a winning attitude and is making all of the right moves behind Tyrod Taylor. Mayfield’s bravado falls somewhere between Johnny Manziel’s “just say anything” and Joe Namath’s “It ain’t bragging if you back it up.” Baker took over the starting job early in the season and has shown typical rookie inconsistency, but he has the gut to take shots that Taylor just wouldn’t. As he gets more experience, he will get more consistent.

This group I like to call the “All I need is a shot” guys. These are guys that flashed during the pre-draft process or maybe during training camp and pre-season. They could be an injury or coach’s decision from seeing the field on a regular basis.

Phillip Lindsay RB — The scat back out of Colorado University flashed in pre-season and looks poised to take on the satellite back role behind Royce Freeman once the coaching staff falls out of love with Devontae Booker. Lindsay forced his way into the starting line up by making plays every time he touched the ball. He earned more and more trust and opportunity as each game passed. The question now is will he be able to hold up at 5’8”, 195 pounds.

Trey Quinn WR — 2018’s Mr. Irrelevant is a slot receiver who is big enough to work the middle of the field. It isn’t always easy to get noticed when you are playing across from Courtland Sutton, but Quinn got picked with the last pick in the 2018 draft and looked good in preseason. He plays the same position as Jamison Crowder. Quinn got injured and was put on injured reserve but got designated as the return from IR guy and when he was healthy the Redskins brought him back. Stepping in for an injured Jamison Crowder in Week 11, Quinn caught 4-of-4 targets for 49 yards.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR — Currently the WR4 in Green Bay. Valdes-Scantling is in a great position to take the Jordy Nelson role as the big, fast wide receiver. The Packers thought the need to re-build their receiving corps was so big that they spent three draft picks from the 2018 class on wide receivers. Valdes-Scantling has led the way plating a prominent role since Week 5 to offset injuries to Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison. MVS, as the cool kids call him, has reeled in 24 passes and averaged 17.1 yards per catch. He looks to be taking the slot role away from free agent to be Cobb.

Gerald Everett TE — If not for Evan Engram we would all be talking about Everett’s speed and athleticism from his combine performance. Everett is primed for a second-year breakout in a powerful offense as the receiving tight end. Coming out of South Alabama Everett wowed with his athleticism at the combine and with Sean McVay taking over for the Rams many thought he would play the “Jordan Reed” role the same way McVay used Reed in Washington. That has not materialized yet but there have been glimpses. In the Monday night barn burner with the Chiefs Everett show some of that promise on a 40-yard touchdown pass along the right sideline.

James Washington WR — A stud wide receiver who put up great numbers in college and has moved comfortably into the No. 3 role in Pittsburg. The opportunity to buy is now before the team moves on from Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisburger. Washington played well enough in the pre-season to warrant the Steelers trading Martavus Bryant to the Raiders. There is just not enough consistency as the third WR in Pittsburg, but there have been some plays that let us see what the future looks like beyond Big Ben and AB.

Jonnu Smith TE — The heir apparent to Delanie walker, Smith has many of the same traits as Walker and should be able to assume the role as Marcus Mariota’s safety net without a noticeable drop-off. You never want to see a player get injured but that is what it took to get Smith on the field. The Titans lost Walker to an injury and battled injuries to Mariota while trying to find a groove under new Head Coach Mike Vrabel. Smith has settled in catching 13-of-16 targets with two touchdowns the past four games.

Others receiving votes. These are some guys that it isn’t too late to try to get for a reasonable price and stash.

Marcel Ateman WR — Ateman played opposite of Washington at Oklahoma State and put up some good numbers. He’s not real fast or real athletic, he just makes plays. He is currently riding the practice squad on Oakland. Ateman was active for the first time in Week 11 pulling in 4 of 5 targets for 50 yards.

Dalton Schultz TE — The Stanford product needs to work on his blocking like a lot of Stanford tight ends, but he is a capable pass catcher. Geoff Swaim just went down with an injury. Schultz was well regarded as a pass catcher coming out of Stanford and Rico Gathers and Blake Jarwin have not distinguished themselves at this point.

Mack Hollins WR — The heir apparent to Alshon Jeffrey, Hollins is a big receiver that can get down the field and make plays in the red zone. Hollins played in all 16 games in 2017 catching 22 passes. He looked good until an injury took him to IR. The Eagles have brought him back to practice and have three weeks to determine if they would like to activate him from IR.

Adam Shaheen TE — The big TE out of Ashland is a two-way threat as an inline tight end and as a receiver, he should still have an opportunity to develop once healed from foot and ankle injuries. A pre-season ankle injury put Shaheen on IR and the free agent signing of Trey Burton pushed him down the pecking order. Shaheen is a solid two-way player who can block and catch. Filling the Jack Doyle role with Burton filling the Eric Ebron role is a likely future for this young prospect.

Jacob Hollister TE — The second-year free agent out of Wyoming has been working on his blocking as he was a catch first tight end in college. Hollister has been biding his time behind Gronk and Dwayne Allen, but should Gronk retire I would expect Hollister to be the first man up to replace him. He isn’t quite as dynamic as Gronk, who is, but will offer good playmaking ability from the tight end position.

Chris Warren III RB — Warren is another injured player. The son of former NFL RB Chris Warren, he is a hulking 6’3” 250 pounds. Once healthy this undrafted free agent showed in training camp that he just needs an opportunity and he will do the rest. Meet Warren, the dynasty community darling just chilling on the Raiders IR. Warren looked good in pre-season, breaking off some big plays against other teams’ backups. With Marshawn Lynch likely to retire and Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington looking like career backups, it looks like the son of the former Seahawk will at least get a shot next year.

There is a recap of some of the players you likely missed grabbing because they have already broke out and some dynasty stashes floating around NFL rosters who can be had and will reward the patient dynasty player.

I will be taking Thursday off from What’s Up What’s Up Sports on 12ozradio.com to enjoy Thanksgiving. The best to you and your families. Gobble, gobble!!

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